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Statistics

(include only L1 5 matches of 5)

StatisticTOUTRO
Goals Scored20.6
Goals Conceded1.43
xG1.981.24
xGA1.281.97
Shots14.616.2
Shots on Target5.63.6
Shots Inside Box10.211.4
Big Chances31.8
Football
FRANCE: Ligue 1

Toulouse β€” Troyes

Toulouse logoToulouse
10/25/2026, 12:15
-
Predictions
Troyes logoTroyes

Match Analysis

Prepared Oct 24, 2026

The upcoming FRANCE: Ligue 1 clash between Toulouse and Troyes brings a matchup our model has flagged on the betting market. The available recorded samples and listed odds are reviewed below. The match is scheduled for October 25, 2026 at 12:15 PM.

Here is our breakdown and top betting picks for this matchup. Check the live odds and full match stats on the Toulouse vs Troyes page.

Match Info

CompetitionFRANCE: Ligue 1
MatchToulouse vs Troyes
KickoffOctober 25, 2026 at 12:15 PM
MarketTOTAL
SelectionTotal Under 2.5
OddsNot available

Team Analysis & Recent Form

Toulouse

In 15 recent games at home, Toulouse went under 2.5 60% of the time. In 10 recent games at home, Toulouse went under 2.5 60% of the time. In 20 recent games at home, Toulouse went under 2.5 50% of the time.

Those numbers shape how Toulouse project in this game's total, and they underpin the picks in the section below.

Troyes

In 5 recent games away, Troyes went under 2.5 60% of the time. In 20 recent games away, Troyes went under 2.5 55% of the time. In 10 recent games away, Troyes went under 2.5 50% of the time.

Those numbers shape how Troyes project in this game's total, and they underpin the picks in the section below.

Recorded Trend Samples

TeamSplitSelectionHit rateGames
ToulouseTOU - HomeTotal Under 2.560%15
ToulouseTOU - HomeTotal Under 2.560%10
Head-to-headOverallTotal Under 2.560%10
TroyesTRO - AwayTotal Under 2.560%5
Head-to-headOverallTotal Under 2.560%5
TroyesTRO - AwayTotal Under 2.555%20
ToulouseTOU - HomeTotal Under 2.550%20
TroyesTRO - AwayTotal Under 2.550%10

The Goal Threat

Read together, the recent samples for Toulouse and Troyes point in the same direction on the game total, with the strongest trend landing at 60%.

Historical rates frame the matchup but never guarantee the next result β€” the market line and price still decide whether a pick holds value. This preview uses only the recorded samples supplied for this fixture.

Best Football Betting Picks & Prediction

  • Pick: Total Under 2.5 β€” odds n/a

Why: Each selection is built on Toulouse and Troyes's recorded totals samples, led by a 60% hit rate. These are analytical opinions, not a promise of a result β€” always compare the listed odds with the current market before betting. No injuries, lineups, weather, motivation, or other unverified match context are assumed in this assessment.

Risk Assessment

Historical samples describe previous results and may not repeat in the next match. The listed odds can also change before kickoff. This assessment does not assume any injuries, lineups, weather, motivation, or other context that is not present in the supplied data.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the best bet for Toulouse vs Troyes?

Our data-backed selection is Total Under 2.5 at listed odds of not available. It is the only tracked pick we flag for Toulouse vs Troyes.

How strong is the Total Under 2.5 trend for Toulouse vs Troyes?

Across 8 recorded samples, Total Under 2.5 landed in up to 60% of games at its strongest. Toulouse's best matching split hit 60% and Troyes's reached 60%.

What are the odds for Total Under 2.5 in Toulouse vs Troyes?

Total Under 2.5 is listed at not available. Compare it with the live market before betting.

When does Toulouse vs Troyes start and what competition is it?

Toulouse vs Troyes is scheduled for October 25, 2026 at 12:15 PM in FRANCE: Ligue 1.

Is Total Under 2.5 a safe bet for Toulouse vs Troyes?

No bet is safe. These hit rates describe past results only and may not repeat, and the listed odds can move before kickoff. We assume no injuries, lineups, weather or motivation beyond the supplied data β€” always compare the live price and bet responsibly.

Disclaimer: Gambling involves risk. Please bet responsibly.

TOT O/U 2.5
W1/W2
H1(-1.5) / H2(+1.5)
BTTS YES/NO
CORN O/U9.5
YC O/U3.5
GM O/U145.5
L5 MATCHES
  • Last 5 matches
  • Last 10 matches
  • Last 15 matches
  • Last 20 matches
  • All matches

Please wait


Toulouse β€” Troyes β€” Predictions & Dropping Odds

FRANCE: Ligue 1
10/25/2026, 12:15
BTS: YesBOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
1.60↓3.0%1.65
W1HOME/AWAY
1.57↓7.7%1.70
Yellow Cards Over 3.5YELLOW CARDS
1.85↓5.6%1.96

Toulouse face Troyes in FRANCE: Ligue 1. Our statistical model analyzed head-to-head records, recent form and key metrics.

Top Tip

Our top pick for this match is BTS: Yes at odds of 1.60. Additional pick: W1 at odds of 1.57.

Predictions use recent historical data, home and away splits and head-to-head records. See the tables above for the complete breakdown.

xG

xG Model 3.3

25 Oct 2026 Β· 16:15 UTC
Toulouse1.81
xG
Troyes1.22
Expected xG total:3.03
Model PickNo Model Pick for this match: the required team xG history is missing.
Prediction saved β“˜
Prediction saved: 2026-10-24 16:18 UTC
Best recorded odds 24.10.2026 21:06 UTC

1X2

Toulouse
50.7%
Draw
23.9%
Troyes
25.4%

Goal line 2.5

Over
58.4%
Under
41.6%

Both teams score

Yes
59.5%
No
40.5%

Likeliest scores

  • 11.1%
  • 9.6%
  • 8.3%
Pre-match prediction
ℹ️ 25.10.2026 12:15
FRANCE: Ligue 1
Toulouse logo
Toulouse
vs
Troyes logo
Troyes

Pre-match 1X2

11.67
X3.90
25.00
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Standings

#MPW%G+/-PTSAVG
1Lyon757%13:5+8142.57
2PSG757%14:9+5143.29
3Paris FC757%12:7+5142.71
4Lille757%10:5+5142.14
5Monaco757%10:6+4142.29
6Rennes757%15:14+1134.14
7Lorient743%7:6+1111.86

Top Scorers

PlayerAG
Tengstedt C.15
Jorgensen T.12
Russell-Rowe J.02
Donnum A.11
Mille A.11
Le Douaron J.01
Maronnier L.01

Pre-match 1X2

Market Assessment

Bookmaker comparison
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Guide
Market Assessment Β· 2.0

Streaks

Result predictions(1)

Troyes have lost:

  • in last 5 Troyes games.
W1 (Toulouse)1.57

Match Trends

πŸ”’

Predictions are locked

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Market Assessment

Bookmaker comparison
πŸ”’

Compare bookmaker odds, find the best recorded price and see changes since opening.

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Guide
Market Assessment Β· 2.0

Streaks

Result predictions(1)

Troyes have lost:

  • in last 5 Troyes games.
W1 (Toulouse)1.57

Statistics

(include only L1 5 matches of 5)

StatisticTOUTRO
Goals Scored20.6
Goals Conceded1.43
xG1.981.24
xGA1.281.97
Shots14.616.2
Shots on Target5.63.6
Shots Inside Box10.211.4
Big Chances31.8

Standings

#MPW%G+/-PTSAVG
1Lyon757%13:5+8142.57
2PSG757%14:9+5143.29
3Paris FC757%12:7+5142.71
4Lille757%10:5+5142.14
5Monaco757%10:6+4142.29
6Rennes757%15:14+1134.14
7Lorient743%7:6+1111.86

Top Scorers

PlayerAG
Tengstedt C.15
Jorgensen T.12
Russell-Rowe J.02
Donnum A.11
Mille A.11
Le Douaron J.01
Maronnier L.01

Lineup analysis

Last updated: Oct 23, 01:48 AM ET
Last matches
Toulouse logo

Toulouse

Avg. rating6.9
4 Β· 2 Β· 3 Β· 1Predicted XI

Substitutes

Bench not published

Troyes logo

Troyes

Avg. rating6.8
4 Β· 2 Β· 3 Β· 1Predicted XI

Substitutes

Bench not published

xG + xA per appearance Β· last 20 actual club appearances. Goalkeepers: GP = goals prevented per appearance.

Injuries & Suspensions

Unavailable or doubtful players and their recent performance

Toulouse logo

Toulouse

2 affected players
Doubtful2 players
Troyes logo

Troyes

4 affected players
Out3 players
Doubtful1 player

Starting Lineup Changes

Confirmed, likely and doubtful changes compared to the previous match.

Toulouse logo

Toulouse

Avg. rating6.9
Total changesβ€”
In

Expected to start

11
Doubtful

Status uncertain

2

Replacement assessment incomplete

Troyes logo

Troyes

Avg. rating6.8
Total changesβ€”
In

Expected to start

11
Doubtful

Status uncertain

1

Replacement assessment incomplete

Recent averages per appearance

Team Context

Compare recent form, attack and defence stats

Toulouse logo

Toulouse

Home
MP
10
W
3
D
3
L
4
Points / match
1.20
LWLDWLLW

Results: 10/10 Β· xG: 10/10Oldest β†’ latest

Troyes logo

Troyes

Away
MP
10
W
4
D
2
L
4
Points / match
1.40
WWLL

Results: 10/10 Β· xG: 10/10Oldest β†’ latest

Attack

0.90
Goals scored / match?Recorded matches: Toulouse 10, Troyes 10. Green marks the stronger value. Fewer conceded is better.
1.20+0.30
1.82+0.71
Expected goals (xG) / match?Recorded matches: Toulouse 10, Troyes 10. Green marks the stronger value. Fewer conceded is better.
1.11
50%
Scored in?Recorded matches: Toulouse 10, Troyes 10. Green marks the stronger value. Fewer conceded is better.
60%+10 pp

Defence

1.40
Goals conceded / match?Recorded matches: Toulouse 10, Troyes 10. Green marks the stronger value. Fewer conceded is better.
1.10-0.30
1.19-0.27
Expected conceded (xGA) / match?Recorded matches: Toulouse 10, Troyes 10. Green marks the stronger value. Fewer conceded is better.
1.46
20%
Clean sheets?Recorded matches: Toulouse 10, Troyes 10. Green marks the stronger value. Fewer conceded is better.
30%+10 pp

Chance balance

+0.62+0.97
xG difference / match?Recorded matches: Toulouse 10, Troyes 10. Green marks the stronger value. Fewer conceded is better.
-0.35
50%+10 pp
Higher xG than opponent?Recorded matches: Toulouse 10, Troyes 10. Green marks the stronger value. Fewer conceded is better.
40%

Goal patterns

40%
Both teams scored?Recorded matches: Toulouse 10, Troyes 10. Frequency only; neither side is better.
40%
40%
Over 2.5 goals?Recorded matches: Toulouse 10, Troyes 10. Frequency only; neither side is better.
50%

Known results and paired xG only. Green marks the stronger value. Fewer conceded is better.

Recent matches

Last 10 matches Β· Latest first Β· score from team’s perspective

Toulouse logo
Toulouse
Last 10 Β· Home
DateCompetitionOpponentScorexG (team – opp.)Results
Sep 19L1FR flagLe Havre logoLe Havre3 : 21.94 : 2.34W
Sep 3L1FR flagLille logoLille0 : 13.47 : 1.21L
Aug 22L1FR flagLyon logoLyon0 : 22.76 : 0.70L
May 10L1FR flagLyon logoLyon2 : 11.13 : 1.54W
Apr 25L1FR flagMonaco logoMonaco2 : 21.74 : 0.74D
Troyes logo
Troyes
Last 10 Β· Away
DateCompetitionOpponentScorexG (team – opp.)Results
Sep 19L1FR flagAngers logoAngers0 : 21.16 : 2.26L
Sep 13L1FR flagLille logoLille0 : 20.44 : 1.56L
Aug 29L1FR flagLorient logoLorient2 : 12.12 : 1.15W
May 9L20 : 10.72 : 0.60L
Apr 25L23 : 01.34 : 0.98W

Match Markets

Key betting markets and team-specific insights

Toulouse logo

Toulouse

Home form
3/1030%
Troyes logo

Troyes

Away form
4/1040%

Recent frequency in each team’s separate home/away league history. These percentages are not probabilities or picks for this match.

Supports the hosts

1 factor
Venue xG balance
+0.98

Toulouse at home: 0.62 xG difference per match (10 records); Troyes away: -0.35 (10 records). Unadjusted historical team xG, not a match probability.

A concern for the hosts

2 factors
Toulouse at home: 3/10
30%

Home win occurred in 3 of 10 recorded at home league matches (30%). This is historical frequency, not the chance of this fixture.

DDLWLDWLLW
Troyes away: 4/10
40%

Home win occurred in 4 of 10 recorded away league matches (40%). This is historical frequency, not the chance of this fixture.

DWWDLWLWLL

Worth checking

13 items
Toulouse: predicted XI
Not confirmed

The starting XI has not been confirmed by the source.

Toulouse: 2 reported absences

Niflore M., Oppong S.. Their effect is not counted as a probability adjustment.

Troyes: predicted XI
Not confirmed

The starting XI has not been confirmed by the source.

Troyes: 4 reported absences

Kone Y., Ouzenadji A., Titi Y., Boura I.. Their effect is not counted as a probability adjustment.

Toulouse: starting XI attacking output

11/11 listed starters have paired xG and xA. Tengstedt C.: 1.53 xG+xA/90 (10 appearances, 424 minutes); scored in 4/10 appearances with recorded goals; Russell-Rowe J.: 0.46 xG+xA/90 (10 appearances, 661 minutes); scored in 3/10 appearances with recorded goals; Jorgensen T.: 0.43 xG+xA/90 (10 appearances, 854 minutes); scored in 2/10 appearances with recorded goals. Individual historical rates describe these players; their sum is not expected team goals.

Toulouse: defensive observations

4/4 identified starting defenders have observed errors leading to shots. Messali R.: 0.17 errors leading to shots/90 (10 appearances, 542 minutes); Nicolaisen R.: 0.00 errors leading to shots/90 (10 appearances, 895 minutes); McKenzie M.: 0.00 errors leading to shots/90 (10 appearances, 900 minutes); Tape C.: 0.20 errors leading to shots/90 (10 appearances, 894 minutes). Messali R.: 40/73 duels won (10 appearances); Nicolaisen R.: 49/76 duels won (10 appearances); McKenzie M.: 47/74 duels won (10 appearances); Tape C.: 41/85 duels won (10 appearances). Missing defensive metrics are unknown, including when a player's position is unpublished.

Toulouse: goalkeeper history

Restes G.: -0.01 goals prevented/90 (10 appearances, 881 minutes).

Toulouse: bench and absences

Bench unpublished. Niflore M.: doubtful (Injury); historical 0.00 xG+xA/90 from 829 minutes. Oppong S.: doubtful (Calf Injury); historical 0.13 xG+xA/90 from 530 minutes. A specific replacement is not inferred from a shared position; replacement quality remains unconfirmed without a comparable profile.

Troyes: starting XI attacking output

11/11 listed starters have paired xG and xA. Le Douaron J.: 0.52 xG+xA/90 (10 appearances, 492 minutes); scored in 1/10 appearances with recorded goals; Nkada T.: 0.51 xG+xA/90 (10 appearances, 431 minutes); scored in 2/10 appearances with recorded goals; Mille A.: 0.31 xG+xA/90 (10 appearances, 802 minutes); scored in 2/10 appearances with recorded goals. Individual historical rates describe these players; their sum is not expected team goals.

Troyes: defensive observations

4/4 identified starting defenders have observed errors leading to shots. Maronnier L.: 0.00 errors leading to shots/90 (10 appearances, 677 minutes); Monfray A.: 0.10 errors leading to shots/90 (10 appearances, 900 minutes); Diaz Jr. M.: 0.11 errors leading to shots/90 (10 appearances, 820 minutes); Gozzi P.: 0.00 errors leading to shots/90 (10 appearances, 781 minutes). Maronnier L.: 44/66 duels won (10 appearances); Monfray A.: 48/67 duels won (10 appearances); Diaz Jr. M.: 28/50 duels won (10 appearances); Gozzi P.: 36/54 duels won (10 appearances). Missing defensive metrics are unknown, including when a player's position is unpublished.

Troyes: goalkeeper history

Beach P.: -0.20 goals prevented/90 (10 appearances, 930 minutes).

Troyes: bench and absences

Bench unpublished. Kone Y.: missing (Knee Injury); historical 0.11 xG+xA/90 from 29 minutes. Ouzenadji A.: missing (Knee Injury); historical 0.06 xG+xA/90 from 600 minutes. Titi Y.: missing (Leg Injury); historical 0.22 xG+xA/90 from 608 minutes. Boura I.: doubtful (Hip Injury); historical 0.11 xG+xA/90 from 729 minutes. A specific replacement is not inferred from a shared position; replacement quality remains unconfirmed without a comparable profile.

Starting XI attacking profiles

Toulouse: 3.56 summed individual xG+xA/90; Troyes: 2.32. Both published XIs have 11 observed profiles. These are descriptive player rates, unadjusted for past opponents and playing roles, not a match goal forecast.

Each metric has its own coverage. Missing data stays unknown.

xG

xG Model 3.3

25 Oct 2026 Β· 16:15 UTC
Toulouse1.81
xG
Troyes1.22
Expected xG total:3.03
Model PickNo Model Pick for this match: the required team xG history is missing.
Prediction saved β“˜
Prediction saved: 2026-10-24 16:18 UTC
Best recorded odds 24.10.2026 21:06 UTC

1X2

Toulouse
50.7%
Draw
23.9%
Troyes
25.4%

Goal line 2.5

Over
58.4%
Under
41.6%

Both teams score

Yes
59.5%
No
40.5%

Likeliest scores

  • 11.1%
  • 9.6%
  • 8.3%
Pre-match prediction

Statistics

(include only L1 5 matches of 5)

StatisticTOUTRO
Goals Scored20.6
Goals Conceded1.43
xG1.981.24
xGA1.281.97
Shots14.616.2
Shots on Target5.63.6
Shots Inside Box10.211.4
Big Chances31.8

Match Trends

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ℹ️ 25.10.2026 12:15
FRANCE: Ligue 1
Toulouse logo
Toulouse
vs
Troyes logo
Troyes
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Learn Betting
BTTS: Yes / No β€Ί1X2 and double chance β€ΊYellow card totals β€ΊExpected goals and pre-match xG β€Ί

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