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Macarthur FC face Perth Glory in A-League. Our statistical model analyzed head-to-head records, recent form and key metrics.
Our top pick for this match is Corners Under 10.5 at odds of 1.77. Additional pick: Yellow Cards Under 3.5 at odds of 1.64.
Predictions use recent historical data, home and away splits and head-to-head records. See the tables above for the complete breakdown.
Model chance of each outcome
in last 8 Macarthur FC home games.in last 7 Macarthur FC home games (A-League).in last 5 Macarthur FC games (A-League).in last 6 Perth Glory games.in last 8 Macarthur FC home games.in last 7 Macarthur FC home games (A-League).in last 6 Perth Glory games.in last 5 head-to-head games.in last 5 Macarthur FC games (A-League).in last 5 Macarthur FC games (A-League).Predictions are locked
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in last 8 Macarthur FC home games.in last 7 Macarthur FC home games (A-League).in last 5 Macarthur FC games (A-League).in last 6 Perth Glory games.in last 8 Macarthur FC home games.in last 7 Macarthur FC home games (A-League).in last 6 Perth Glory games.in last 5 head-to-head games.in last 5 Macarthur FC games (A-League).in last 5 Macarthur FC games (A-League).(include only AL 5 matches of 5)
| Statistic | MAC | PER |
|---|---|---|
| Goals Scored | 2.2 | 1.6 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.8 | 1 |
| xG | 1.29 | 1.69 |
| xGA | 1.56 | 1.49 |
| Shots | 16 | 13.8 |
| Shots on Target | 5.4 | 5 |
| Shots Inside Box | 10 | 7.6 |
| Big Chances | 2.4 | 3.4 |
| No. | Player | Position | Apps | Rating | xG + xA/match | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | — | 20 | 6.7 | 0.21 | ||
 | — | 20 | 7.2 | 0.35 | ||
| GK | 0 | — | GP — | |||
 | — | 18 | 7.3 | 0.27 | ||
 | — | 16 | 6.3 | 0.08 | ||
| — | 2 | 6.9 | 0.15 | |||
 | — | 11 | 6.6 | 0.18 |
| No. | Player | Position | Apps | Rating | xG + xA/match | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | — | 18 | 6.6 | 0.06 | ||
| — | 1 | 6.5 | — | |||
 | — | 20 | 6.8 | 0.25 | ||
| — | 1 | 5.9 | 0.11 | |||
 | — | 12 | 6.8 | — | ||
 | GK | 0 | — | GP — | ||
 | — | 20 | 6.4 | 0.14 |
xG + xA per appearance · last 20 actual club appearances. Goalkeepers: GP = goals prevented per appearance.
Unavailable or doubtful players and their recent performance
No absences listed · source coverage unconfirmed
Confirmed, likely and doubtful changes compared to the previous match.
Confirmed to start
Not in the starting XI
Confirmed to start
Not in the starting XI
Recent averages per appearance
Compare recent form, attack and defence stats
Results: 10/10 · xG: 10/10Oldest → latest
Results: 10/10 · xG: 10/10Oldest → latest
Known results and paired xG only. Green marks the stronger value. Fewer conceded is better.
Last 10 matches · Latest first · score from team’s perspective
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG (team – opp.) | Results |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
A-League |  Wellington Phoenix | 4 : 0 | 2.88 : 1.36 | W | |
| A-League |  Newcastle Jets | 3 : 2 | 1.24 : 1.20 | W | |
| A-League | 1 : 3 | 1.23 : 2.09 | L | ||
| A-League | 0 : 4 | 1.39 : 1.97 | L | ||
| A-League | 2 : 2 | 1.60 : 1.17 | D |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG (team – opp.) | Results |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A-League |  Sydney FC | 0 : 0 | 0.59 : 1.54 | D | |
| A-League |  Central Coast Mariners | 2 : 2 | 1.83 : 2.02 | D | |
| A-League | Wellington Phoenix | 0 : 2 | 0.22 : 2.24 | L | |
| A-League |  Auckland FC | 2 : 2 | 0.56 : 1.16 | D | |
| A-League | 1 : 1 | 0.53 : 1.89 | D |
Key betting markets and team-specific insights
Recent frequency in each team’s separate home/away league history. These percentages are not probabilities or picks for this match.
Macarthur FC at home: 0.04 xG difference per match (10 records); Perth Glory away: -0.82 (10 records). Unadjusted historical team xG, not a match probability.
Home win occurred in 4 of 10 recorded at home league matches (40%). This is historical frequency, not the chance of this fixture.
Home win occurred in 4 of 10 recorded away league matches (40%). This is historical frequency, not the chance of this fixture.
O'Neill B., Ostler T.. Their effect is not counted as a probability adjustment.
11/11 listed starters have paired xG and xA. Gibson B.: 0.58 xG+xA/90 (10 appearances, 500 minutes); scored in 2/10 appearances with recorded goals; Stamatelopoulos A.: 0.52 xG+xA/90 (10 appearances, 775 minutes); scored in 3/10 appearances with recorded goals; Vickery L.: 0.40 xG+xA/90 (10 appearances, 549 minutes); scored in 2/10 appearances with recorded goals. Individual historical rates describe these players; their sum is not expected team goals.
4/4 identified starting defenders have observed errors leading to shots. Talbot C.: 0.10 errors leading to shots/90 (10 appearances, 889 minutes); Nara T.: 0.00 errors leading to shots/90 (10 appearances, 718 minutes); Aspropotamitis J.: 0.00 errors leading to shots/90 (6 appearances, 477 minutes); Paull N.: 0.00 errors leading to shots/90 (10 appearances, 566 minutes). Talbot C.: 29/74 duels won (10 appearances); Nara T.: 41/73 duels won (10 appearances); Aspropotamitis J.: 20/37 duels won (6 appearances); Paull N.: 28/50 duels won (10 appearances). Missing defensive metrics are unknown, including when a player's position is unpublished.
Robinson A.: -0.10 goals prevented/90 (10 appearances, 917 minutes).
6/7 published substitutes have personal history. No absences are reported in the saved source. A specific replacement is not inferred from a shared position; replacement quality remains unconfirmed without a comparable profile.
11/11 listed starters have paired xG and xA. Kuzamba T.: 0.68 xG+xA/90 (1 appearances, 6 minutes); scored in 0/1 appearances with recorded goals; Deng C.: 0.53 xG+xA/90 (3 appearances, 274 minutes); scored in 1/10 appearances with recorded goals; Lawrence T.: 0.48 xG+xA/90 (10 appearances, 854 minutes); scored in 2/10 appearances with recorded goals. Individual historical rates describe these players; their sum is not expected team goals.
4/4 identified starting defenders have observed errors leading to shots. Kuzamba T.: 0.00 errors leading to shots/90 (1 appearances, 6 minutes); Deng C.: 0.00 errors leading to shots/90 (3 appearances, 274 minutes); Jackson L.: 0.00 errors leading to shots/90 (10 appearances, 635 minutes); Lebib A.: 0.29 errors leading to shots/90 (10 appearances, 306 minutes). Kuzamba T.: 1/2 duels won (1 appearances); Deng C.: 27/37 duels won (3 appearances); Jackson L.: 43/59 duels won (10 appearances); Lebib A.: 24/41 duels won (10 appearances). Missing defensive metrics are unknown, including when a player's position is unpublished.
Sutton M.: -0.09 goals prevented/90 (10 appearances, 930 minutes).
6/7 published substitutes have personal history. O'Neill B.: missing (Injury); historical 0.14 xG+xA/90 from 201 minutes. Ostler T.: missing (Broken jawbone); historical 0.19 xG+xA/90 from 365 minutes. A specific replacement is not inferred from a shared position; replacement quality remains unconfirmed without a comparable profile.
Macarthur FC: 2.36 summed individual xG+xA/90; Perth Glory: 2.77. Both published XIs have 11 observed profiles. These are descriptive player rates, unadjusted for past opponents and playing roles, not a match goal forecast.
Each metric has its own coverage. Missing data stays unknown.
Model chance of each outcome
Statistical model estimate for the upcoming match.
Statistical model estimate for the upcoming match.
(include only AL 5 matches of 5)
| Statistic | MAC | PER |
|---|---|---|
| Goals Scored | 2.2 | 1.6 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.8 | 1 |
| xG | 1.29 | 1.69 |
| xGA | 1.56 | 1.49 |
| Shots | 16 | 13.8 |
| Shots on Target | 5.4 | 5 |
| Shots Inside Box | 10 | 7.6 |
| Big Chances | 2.4 | 3.4 |
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