Barcelona — Real Madrid

Home win occurred in 10 of 10 recorded at home league matches (100%). This is historical frequency, not the chance of this fixture.

Barcelona at home: 1.74 xG difference per match (10 records); Real Madrid away: 0.60 (10 records). Unadjusted historical team xG, not a match probability.

Home win occurred in 4 of 10 recorded away league matches (40%). This is historical frequency, not the chance of this fixture.

The starting XI has not been confirmed by the source.

Bardghji R., Garcia E., Olmo D., Christensen A. and 1 more. Their effect is not counted as a probability adjustment.

The starting XI has not been confirmed by the source.

Asencio R., Rodrygo, Vinicius Junior, Mendy F.. Their effect is not counted as a probability adjustment.

11/11 listed starters have paired xG and xA. Raphinha: 1.48 xG+xA/90 (10 appearances, 706 minutes); scored in 7/10 appearances with recorded goals; Lamine Yamal: 1.16 xG+xA/90 (10 appearances, 856 minutes); scored in 7/10 appearances with recorded goals; Fermin: 0.73 xG+xA/90 (10 appearances, 612 minutes); scored in 3/10 appearances with recorded goals. Individual historical rates describe these players; their sum is not expected team goals.

4/4 identified starting defenders have observed errors leading to shots. Espart X.: 0.00 errors leading to shots/90 (10 appearances, 767 minutes); Cubarsi P.: 0.00 errors leading to shots/90 (10 appearances, 844 minutes); Martin G.: 0.12 errors leading to shots/90 (10 appearances, 751 minutes); Cancelo J.: 0.00 errors leading to shots/90 (10 appearances, 483 minutes). Espart X.: 52/86 duels won (10 appearances); Cubarsi P.: 41/66 duels won (10 appearances); Martin G.: 28/46 duels won (10 appearances); Cancelo J.: 25/53 duels won (10 appearances). Missing defensive metrics are unknown, including when a player's position is unpublished.

Garcia J.: 0.12 goals prevented/90 (10 appearances, 855 minutes).

Bench unpublished. Bardghji R.: missing (Knee Injury); historical 0.36 xG+xA/90 from 371 minutes. Garcia E.: missing (Muscle Injury); historical 0.23 xG+xA/90 from 739 minutes. Olmo D.: missing (Groin Injury); historical 0.68 xG+xA/90 from 464 minutes. Christensen A.: doubtful (Muscle Injury); historical 0.19 xG+xA/90 from 608 minutes. Kounde J.: doubtful (Ankle Injury); historical 0.18 xG+xA/90 from 638 minutes. A specific replacement is not inferred from a shared position; replacement quality remains unconfirmed without a comparable profile.

11/11 listed starters have paired xG and xA. Guler A.: 1.12 xG+xA/90 (10 appearances, 549 minutes); scored in 3/10 appearances with recorded goals; Mbappe K.: 1.10 xG+xA/90 (10 appearances, 891 minutes); scored in 7/10 appearances with recorded goals; Bellingham J.: 0.47 xG+xA/90 (10 appearances, 798 minutes); scored in 2/10 appearances with recorded goals. Individual historical rates describe these players; their sum is not expected team goals.

4/4 identified starting defenders have observed errors leading to shots. Valverde F.: 0.11 errors leading to shots/90 (10 appearances, 829 minutes); Konate I.: 0.00 errors leading to shots/90 (10 appearances, 900 minutes); Huijsen D.: 0.11 errors leading to shots/90 (10 appearances, 792 minutes); Cucurella M.: 0.00 errors leading to shots/90 (10 appearances, 682 minutes). Valverde F.: 28/49 duels won (10 appearances); Konate I.: 31/58 duels won (10 appearances); Huijsen D.: 31/52 duels won (10 appearances); Cucurella M.: 34/54 duels won (10 appearances). Missing defensive metrics are unknown, including when a player's position is unpublished.

Courtois T.: 0.05 goals prevented/90 (10 appearances, 900 minutes).

Bench unpublished. Asencio R.: missing (Broken Leg); historical 0.10 xG+xA/90 from 842 minutes. Rodrygo: missing (Knee Injury); historical 0.72 xG+xA/90 from 624 minutes. Vinicius Junior: missing (Red Card); historical 0.67 xG+xA/90 from 711 minutes. Mendy F.: doubtful (Hip Injury); historical 0.02 xG+xA/90 from 463 minutes. A specific replacement is not inferred from a shared position; replacement quality remains unconfirmed without a comparable profile.

Barcelona: 5.13 summed individual xG+xA/90; Real Madrid: 3.49. Both published XIs have 11 observed profiles. These are descriptive player rates, unadjusted for past opponents and playing roles, not a match goal forecast.