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Auckland FC face Melbourne City in AUSTRALIA: A-League. Our statistical model analyzed head-to-head records, recent form and key metrics.
Our top pick for this match is W1 at odds of 2.50. Additional pick: Corners Over 9.5 at odds of 1.83.
Predictions use recent historical data, home and away splits and head-to-head records. See the tables above for the complete breakdown.
Model chance of each outcome
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(include only AL 5 matches of 5)
| Statistic | AUC | MCY |
|---|---|---|
| Goals Scored | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| xG | 1.3 | 1.69 |
| xGA | 1.32 | 1.48 |
| Shots | 12.8 | 14.2 |
| Shots on Target | 4 | 4.8 |
| Shots Inside Box | 8.4 | 10 |
| Big Chances | 2.4 | 2.4 |
| No. | Player | Position | Apps | Rating | xG + xA/match | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | — | 10 | 6.3 | 0.11 | ||
 | — | 20 | 6.8 | 0.08 | ||
 | — | 4 | 6.4 | 0.02 | ||
 | GK | 0 | — | GP — | ||
| — | 1 | 6.8 | 0.10 | |||
| — | 0 | — | — | |||
 | — | 12 | 6.7 | 0.05 |
| No. | Player | Position | Apps | Rating | xG + xA/match | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | — | 14 | 7.0 | 0.03 | ||
| — | 2 | 6.5 | 0.09 | |||
 | — | 20 | 6.4 | 0.28 | ||
 | — | 20 | 6.6 | 0.16 | ||
 | — | 14 | 7.1 | 0.10 | ||
 | GK | 5 | 7.1 | GP 0.36 | ||
 | — | 13 | 6.7 | 0.03 |
xG + xA per appearance · last 20 actual club appearances. Goalkeepers: GP = goals prevented per appearance.
Unavailable or doubtful players and their recent performance
Confirmed, likely and doubtful changes compared to the previous match.
Confirmed to start
Not in the starting XI
Confirmed to start
Not in the starting XI
Recent averages per appearance
Compare recent form, attack and defence stats
Results: 10/10 · xG: 10/10Oldest → latest
Results: 10/10 · xG: 10/10Oldest → latest
Known results and paired xG only. Green marks the stronger value. Fewer conceded is better.
Last 10 matches · Latest first · score from team’s perspective
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG (team – opp.) | Results |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
A-League |  Sydney FC | 1 : 0 | 0.30 : 0.37 | W | |
| A-League |  Adelaide United | 1 : 1 | 0.87 : 1.55 | D | |
| A-League |  Central Coast Mariners | 0 : 1 | 2.12 : 2.86 | L | |
| A-League |  Melbourne Victory | 2 : 2 | 1.49 : 1.34 | D | |
| A-League |  Macarthur FC | 1 : 2 | 1.44 : 0.99 | L |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG (team – opp.) | Results |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A-League |  Brisbane Roar | 3 : 2 | 2.15 : 1.38 | W | |
| A-League |  Perth Glory | 1 : 1 | 1.59 : 1.69 | D | |
| A-League | Sydney FC | 1 : 0 | 2.84 : 0.80 | W | |
| A-League | 0 : 3 | 0.51 : 2.97 | L | ||
| A-League | 1 : 1 | 1.55 : 1.39 | D |
Key betting markets and team-specific insights
Recent frequency in each team’s separate home/away league history. These percentages are not probabilities or picks for this match.
Auckland FC at home: 0.54 xG difference per match (10 records); Melbourne City away: 0.12 (10 records). Unadjusted historical team xG, not a match probability.
Home win occurred in 3 of 10 recorded at home league matches (30%). This is historical frequency, not the chance of this fixture.
Home win occurred in 3 of 10 recorded away league matches (30%). This is historical frequency, not the chance of this fixture.
Francois M., Sail O.. Their effect is not counted as a probability adjustment.
Lopane A.. Their effect is not counted as a probability adjustment.
11/11 listed starters have paired xG and xA. Cosgrove S.: 0.41 xG+xA/90 (10 appearances, 858 minutes); scored in 2/10 appearances with recorded goals; De Vries F.: 0.38 xG+xA/90 (10 appearances, 673 minutes); scored in 0/10 appearances with recorded goals; Rogerson L.: 0.36 xG+xA/90 (10 appearances, 485 minutes); scored in 1/10 appearances with recorded goals. Individual historical rates describe these players; their sum is not expected team goals.
3/3 identified starting defenders have observed errors leading to shots. Sakai H.: 0.12 errors leading to shots/90 (10 appearances, 772 minutes); Pijnaker N.: 0.15 errors leading to shots/90 (10 appearances, 608 minutes); De Vries F.: 0.00 errors leading to shots/90 (10 appearances, 673 minutes). Sakai H.: 57/97 duels won (10 appearances); Pijnaker N.: 40/62 duels won (10 appearances); De Vries F.: 42/65 duels won (10 appearances). Missing defensive metrics are unknown, including when a player's position is unpublished.
Woud M.: 0.08 goals prevented/90 (10 appearances, 930 minutes).
5/7 published substitutes have personal history. Francois M.: missing (Inactive); historical 0.46 xG+xA/90 from 225 minutes. Sail O.: missing (Knee Injury); historical 0.00 xG+xA/90 from 579 minutes. A specific replacement is not inferred from a shared position; replacement quality remains unconfirmed without a comparable profile.
11/11 listed starters have paired xG and xA. Mabil A.: 1.01 xG+xA/90 (10 appearances, 301 minutes); scored in 1/10 appearances with recorded goals; MacNicol Q.: 0.50 xG+xA/90 (10 appearances, 171 minutes); scored in 0/10 appearances with recorded goals; Memeti M.: 0.46 xG+xA/90 (10 appearances, 488 minutes); scored in 3/10 appearances with recorded goals. Individual historical rates describe these players; their sum is not expected team goals.
4/4 identified starting defenders have observed errors leading to shots. Atkinson N.: 0.19 errors leading to shots/90 (10 appearances, 960 minutes); Bonetig L.: 0.00 errors leading to shots/90 (10 appearances, 538 minutes); Delbridge H.: 0.39 errors leading to shots/90 (8 appearances, 687 minutes); Behich A.: 0.00 errors leading to shots/90 (10 appearances, 960 minutes). Atkinson N.: 66/124 duels won (10 appearances); Bonetig L.: 25/44 duels won (10 appearances); Delbridge H.: 56/82 duels won (8 appearances); Behich A.: 40/70 duels won (10 appearances). Missing defensive metrics are unknown, including when a player's position is unpublished.
Freke M.: -0.21 goals prevented/90 (6 appearances, 495 minutes).
7/7 published substitutes have personal history. Lopane A.: missing (Muscle Injury); historical 0.13 xG+xA/90 from 447 minutes. A specific replacement is not inferred from a shared position; replacement quality remains unconfirmed without a comparable profile.
Auckland FC: 2.44 summed individual xG+xA/90; Melbourne City: 3.37. Both published XIs have 11 observed profiles. These are descriptive player rates, unadjusted for past opponents and playing roles, not a match goal forecast.
Each metric has its own coverage. Missing data stays unknown.
Model chance of each outcome
Statistical model estimate for the upcoming match.
Statistical model estimate for the upcoming match.
(include only AL 5 matches of 5)
| Statistic | AUC | MCY |
|---|---|---|
| Goals Scored | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| xG | 1.3 | 1.69 |
| xGA | 1.32 | 1.48 |
| Shots | 12.8 | 14.2 |
| Shots on Target | 4 | 4.8 |
| Shots Inside Box | 8.4 | 10 |
| Big Chances | 2.4 | 2.4 |
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