Tirol — Grazer

Home win occurred in 7 of 10 recorded away league matches (70%). This is historical frequency, not the chance of this fixture.

Tirol at home: -0.15 xG difference per match (10 records); Grazer AK away: -0.89 (10 records). Unadjusted historical team xG, not a match probability.

Home win occurred in 3 of 10 recorded at home league matches (30%). This is historical frequency, not the chance of this fixture.

The starting XI has not been confirmed by the source.

Butler Q.. Their effect is not counted as a probability adjustment.

The starting XI has not been confirmed by the source.

Guerti I.. Their effect is not counted as a probability adjustment.

11/11 listed starters have paired xG and xA. Baden Frederiksen N.: 0.48 xG+xA/90 (9 appearances, 578 minutes); scored in 2/10 appearances with recorded goals; Olakigbe M.: 0.41 xG+xA/90 (9 appearances, 737 minutes); scored in 3/10 appearances with recorded goals; Striednig M.: 0.26 xG+xA/90 (8 appearances, 616 minutes); scored in 2/10 appearances with recorded goals. Individual historical rates describe these players; their sum is not expected team goals.

4/4 identified starting defenders have observed errors leading to shots. Murray D.: 0.00 errors leading to shots/90 (8 appearances, 717 minutes); Boras M.: 0.22 errors leading to shots/90 (9 appearances, 805 minutes); Gugganig D.: 0.00 errors leading to shots/90 (10 appearances, 626 minutes); Oswald M.: 0.00 errors leading to shots/90 (9 appearances, 621 minutes). Murray D.: 36/54 duels won (8 appearances); Boras M.: 51/78 duels won (9 appearances); Gugganig D.: 51/88 duels won (10 appearances); Oswald M.: 30/57 duels won (9 appearances). Missing defensive metrics are unknown, including when a player's position is unpublished.

Hamzic S.: 0.75 goals prevented/90 (9 appearances, 810 minutes).

Bench unpublished. Butler Q.: missing (Knee Injury); historical 0.19 xG+xA/90 from 712 minutes. A specific replacement is not inferred from a shared position; replacement quality remains unconfirmed without a comparable profile.

11/11 listed starters have paired xG and xA. Hofleitner A.: 0.36 xG+xA/90 (9 appearances, 730 minutes); scored in 4/10 appearances with recorded goals; Anderson: 0.29 xG+xA/90 (9 appearances, 627 minutes); scored in 0/10 appearances with recorded goals; Michorl P.: 0.25 xG+xA/90 (9 appearances, 803 minutes); scored in 0/10 appearances with recorded goals. Individual historical rates describe these players; their sum is not expected team goals.

5/5 identified starting defenders have observed errors leading to shots. Oberleitner Y.: 0.00 errors leading to shots/90 (9 appearances, 712 minutes); Sollbauer M.: 0.00 errors leading to shots/90 (9 appearances, 745 minutes); Owusu B.: 0.00 errors leading to shots/90 (9 appearances, 803 minutes); Anderson: 0.00 errors leading to shots/90 (9 appearances, 627 minutes); Klassen L.: 0.00 errors leading to shots/90 (9 appearances, 776 minutes). Oberleitner Y.: 73/102 duels won (9 appearances); Sollbauer M.: 32/54 duels won (9 appearances); Owusu B.: 45/73 duels won (9 appearances); Anderson: 32/74 duels won (9 appearances); Klassen L.: 39/76 duels won (9 appearances). Missing defensive metrics are unknown, including when a player's position is unpublished.

Stankovic C.: 0.02 goals prevented/90 (9 appearances, 810 minutes).

Bench unpublished. Guerti I.: missing (Muscle Injury); historical 0.41 xG+xA/90 from 236 minutes. A specific replacement is not inferred from a shared position; replacement quality remains unconfirmed without a comparable profile.

Tirol: 2.17 summed individual xG+xA/90; Grazer AK: 1.91. Both published XIs have 11 observed profiles. These are descriptive player rates, unadjusted for past opponents and playing roles, not a match goal forecast.