Toulouse — Troyes

Toulouse at home: 0.62 xG difference per match (10 records); Troyes away: -0.35 (10 records). Unadjusted historical team xG, not a match probability.

Home win occurred in 3 of 10 recorded at home league matches (30%). This is historical frequency, not the chance of this fixture.

Home win occurred in 4 of 10 recorded away league matches (40%). This is historical frequency, not the chance of this fixture.

The starting XI has not been confirmed by the source.

Niflore M., Oppong S.. Their effect is not counted as a probability adjustment.

The starting XI has not been confirmed by the source.

Kone Y., Ouzenadji A., Titi Y., Boura I.. Their effect is not counted as a probability adjustment.

11/11 listed starters have paired xG and xA. Tengstedt C.: 1.53 xG+xA/90 (10 appearances, 424 minutes); scored in 4/10 appearances with recorded goals; Russell-Rowe J.: 0.46 xG+xA/90 (10 appearances, 661 minutes); scored in 3/10 appearances with recorded goals; Jorgensen T.: 0.43 xG+xA/90 (10 appearances, 854 minutes); scored in 2/10 appearances with recorded goals. Individual historical rates describe these players; their sum is not expected team goals.

4/4 identified starting defenders have observed errors leading to shots. Messali R.: 0.17 errors leading to shots/90 (10 appearances, 542 minutes); Nicolaisen R.: 0.00 errors leading to shots/90 (10 appearances, 895 minutes); McKenzie M.: 0.00 errors leading to shots/90 (10 appearances, 900 minutes); Tape C.: 0.20 errors leading to shots/90 (10 appearances, 894 minutes). Messali R.: 40/73 duels won (10 appearances); Nicolaisen R.: 49/76 duels won (10 appearances); McKenzie M.: 47/74 duels won (10 appearances); Tape C.: 41/85 duels won (10 appearances). Missing defensive metrics are unknown, including when a player's position is unpublished.

Restes G.: -0.01 goals prevented/90 (10 appearances, 881 minutes).

Bench unpublished. Niflore M.: doubtful (Injury); historical 0.00 xG+xA/90 from 829 minutes. Oppong S.: doubtful (Calf Injury); historical 0.13 xG+xA/90 from 530 minutes. A specific replacement is not inferred from a shared position; replacement quality remains unconfirmed without a comparable profile.

11/11 listed starters have paired xG and xA. Le Douaron J.: 0.52 xG+xA/90 (10 appearances, 492 minutes); scored in 1/10 appearances with recorded goals; Nkada T.: 0.51 xG+xA/90 (10 appearances, 431 minutes); scored in 2/10 appearances with recorded goals; Mille A.: 0.31 xG+xA/90 (10 appearances, 802 minutes); scored in 2/10 appearances with recorded goals. Individual historical rates describe these players; their sum is not expected team goals.

4/4 identified starting defenders have observed errors leading to shots. Maronnier L.: 0.00 errors leading to shots/90 (10 appearances, 677 minutes); Monfray A.: 0.10 errors leading to shots/90 (10 appearances, 900 minutes); Diaz Jr. M.: 0.11 errors leading to shots/90 (10 appearances, 820 minutes); Gozzi P.: 0.00 errors leading to shots/90 (10 appearances, 781 minutes). Maronnier L.: 44/66 duels won (10 appearances); Monfray A.: 48/67 duels won (10 appearances); Diaz Jr. M.: 28/50 duels won (10 appearances); Gozzi P.: 36/54 duels won (10 appearances). Missing defensive metrics are unknown, including when a player's position is unpublished.

Beach P.: -0.20 goals prevented/90 (10 appearances, 930 minutes).

Bench unpublished. Kone Y.: missing (Knee Injury); historical 0.11 xG+xA/90 from 29 minutes. Ouzenadji A.: missing (Knee Injury); historical 0.06 xG+xA/90 from 600 minutes. Titi Y.: missing (Leg Injury); historical 0.22 xG+xA/90 from 608 minutes. Boura I.: doubtful (Hip Injury); historical 0.11 xG+xA/90 from 729 minutes. A specific replacement is not inferred from a shared position; replacement quality remains unconfirmed without a comparable profile.

Toulouse: 3.56 summed individual xG+xA/90; Troyes: 2.32. Both published XIs have 11 observed profiles. These are descriptive player rates, unadjusted for past opponents and playing roles, not a match goal forecast.