Kiel — Dynamo Dresden

Holstein Kiel at home: 0.10 xG difference per match (10 records); SG Dynamo Dresden away: -0.53 (10 records). Unadjusted historical team xG, not a match probability.

Home win occurred in 2 of 10 recorded at home league matches (20%). This is historical frequency, not the chance of this fixture.

Abe T., Muqaj H., Rosenboom L., Roslyng F. and 2 more. Their effect is not counted as a probability adjustment.

Home win occurred in 5 of 10 recorded away league matches (50%). This is historical frequency, not the chance of this fixture.

Bunning L., Keller T., Schmidt K.. Their effect is not counted as a probability adjustment.

11/11 listed starters have paired xG and xA. Harres P.: 0.56 xG+xA/90 (10 appearances, 900 minutes); scored in 6/10 appearances with recorded goals; Kapralik A.: 0.46 xG+xA/90 (10 appearances, 803 minutes); scored in 1/10 appearances with recorded goals; Kvilitaia G.: 0.28 xG+xA/90 (10 appearances, 490 minutes); scored in 2/10 appearances with recorded goals. Individual historical rates describe these players; their sum is not expected team goals.

4/4 identified starting defenders have observed errors leading to shots. Sekine H.: 0.11 errors leading to shots/90 (10 appearances, 833 minutes); Madsen N.: 0.00 errors leading to shots/90 (4 appearances, 303 minutes); Zec D.: 0.00 errors leading to shots/90 (10 appearances, 826 minutes); Parduzi L.: 0.19 errors leading to shots/90 (9 appearances, 484 minutes). Sekine H.: 58/92 duels won (10 appearances); Madsen N.: 10/24 duels won (4 appearances); Zec D.: 43/78 duels won (10 appearances); Parduzi L.: 33/64 duels won (9 appearances). Missing defensive metrics are unknown, including when a player's position is unpublished.

Weiner T.: -0.27 goals prevented/90 (10 appearances, 900 minutes).

9/9 published substitutes have personal history. Abe T.: missing (Back Injury); historical 0.11 xG+xA/90 from 788 minutes. Muqaj H.: missing (Knee Injury); personal attacking data unavailable. Rosenboom L.: missing (Knee Injury); historical 0.15 xG+xA/90 from 646 minutes. Roslyng F.: missing (Knee Injury); historical 0.02 xG+xA/90 from 319 minutes. Schonlau S.: missing (Injury); historical 0.06 xG+xA/90 from 75 minutes. Skrzybski S.: missing (Muscle Injury); historical 0.31 xG+xA/90 from 578 minutes. A specific replacement is not inferred from a shared position; replacement quality remains unconfirmed without a comparable profile.

11/11 listed starters have paired xG and xA. Vermeij V.: 0.48 xG+xA/90 (10 appearances, 779 minutes); scored in 3/10 appearances with recorded goals; Covic P.: 0.40 xG+xA/90 (10 appearances, 383 minutes); scored in 2/10 appearances with recorded goals; Hauptmann N.: 0.31 xG+xA/90 (10 appearances, 772 minutes); scored in 3/10 appearances with recorded goals. Individual historical rates describe these players; their sum is not expected team goals.

4/4 identified starting defenders have observed errors leading to shots. Sterner J.: 0.12 errors leading to shots/90 (10 appearances, 725 minutes); Rapp N.: 0.00 errors leading to shots/90 (10 appearances, 793 minutes); Muller F.: 0.00 errors leading to shots/90 (10 appearances, 720 minutes); Straudi S.: 0.00 errors leading to shots/90 (6 appearances, 352 minutes). Sterner J.: 25/56 duels won (10 appearances); Rapp N.: 30/54 duels won (10 appearances); Muller F.: 32/52 duels won (10 appearances); Straudi S.: 9/22 duels won (6 appearances). Missing defensive metrics are unknown, including when a player's position is unpublished.

Grill L.: 0.02 goals prevented/90 (10 appearances, 900 minutes).

9/9 published substitutes have personal history. Bunning L.: missing (Head Injury); historical 0.09 xG+xA/90 from 600 minutes. Keller T.: missing (Inactive); historical 0.08 xG+xA/90 from 834 minutes. Schmidt K.: missing (Knee Injury); historical 0.07 xG+xA/90 from 783 minutes. A specific replacement is not inferred from a shared position; replacement quality remains unconfirmed without a comparable profile.

Holstein Kiel: 2.37 summed individual xG+xA/90; SG Dynamo Dresden: 2.49. Both published XIs have 11 observed profiles. These are descriptive player rates, unadjusted for past opponents and playing roles, not a match goal forecast.